Stop the strength of schedule madness!

"I don't care what people want to say about Penn State, Paterno's team is not playing a non-conference sked that makes them worthy of playing for the national title... I'd much prefer to see a BYU in the Rose Bowl than an undefeated Penn State team." - Eric Prisbell, The Washington Post

It's getting old, right? I know, me too. It's to the point already where I'm starting to get pissed off. This problem isn't exclusive to Penn State and BYU. Plenty of other teams this year and in years past have been forced to suffer through it. But the PSU-BYU argument for this season is a good start for debunking the entire idea of judging a team's strength of schedule before the regular season has concluded.

I could spend this time ranting about Prisbell's comment, attacking him and the dozens of other pundits who are already discounting a possibly-undefeated Penn State from the BCS Championship Game, over a BYU team that hasn't proven anything yet, either. But I won't. Instead, I'm going to make a rather simple comparison of the two team's schedules, and pretty much let you decide if one -- at this point in the season -- is already more deserving than the other.

Before I begin, allow me to clear one thing up. One cannot compare ONLY non-conference schedules, which it seems most have been doing lately, both when discussing BYU's case for the BCS title game and the reason for Penn State's exclusion from the championship conversation. If we're trying to determine which team has the strongest schedule -- again, even though it's mid-September -- the ENTIRE schedule must be considered.

The Opponents

I'm going to rank each team's opponents, strongest to weakest on a scale of 1-10. One (1) will represent FCS teams, 2 will be the worst level of FBS team, and so on, up to 9 and 10, which are teams on the level of Florida and USC.

Penn_St_Opponent	Strength	BYU_Opponent____	Strength
AKRON	3	Oklahoma^	8
SYRACUSE	4	Tulane	2
TEMPLE	3	FLORIDA ST	7
IOWA*	7	COLORADO ST*	3
Illinois*	5	UTAH ST	2
E. ILLINOIS	1	UNLV(away)*	3
MINNESOTA*	5	San Diego St*	6
Michigan*	6	TCU*	6
Northwestern*	5	Wyoming*	2
OHIO ST*	8	New Mexico*	3
INDIANA*	4	AIR FORCE*	4
Michigan St*	5	UTAH*	6
TOTALS	56		52

Don't go crying bias, because I was very generous on BYU's schedule, and stayed away from boosting PSU's schedule, even though I could argue some of PSU's opponents are much better than they appear. But you can see that by taking into account the relative strength of all 24 opponents, Penn State faces a schedule is no weaker overall than the one BYU will play.

Game locations

If one is going to make an argument for a team's strength of schedule, the games' locations must also be taken into account. BYU has every tough opponent traveling to Provo, and Oklahoma was taken on at a neutral site. Penn State must go to Illinois, Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State, all superior to any of the Cougars' true road opponents. The Lions play eight home games, while BYU plays seven.

Conclusion

Strength of schedule arguments are pretty much all bogus until the end of the regular season. That's why this stuff gets people worked up. We don't know how strong these opponents really are until all the games are played on the field. But since guys like Prisbell are already making judgments on which teams have the stronger schedule, it's on. Come to think of it, Prisbell didn't even say that BYU would have to be undefeated to beat out a 12-0 Penn State team, did he? Wow.

At this point in the season, no one can say an undefeated BYU squad will deserve a spot in the BCS Championship Game over an undefeated Penn State. What if Oklahoma loses three or four games? What if Ohio State only loses to Penn State the rest of the year? What if Utah or TCU turn out to be mediocre, which would equate to a bad BCS team? What if Michigan is really as good as they looked so far?

So, until all those questions are answered, it's time to chill out with the BYU=Automatic chatter.

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 5 2008

The top didn't move much again. Doesn't anyone else realize that USC has had two bye weeks so far? Just thought I'd mention that. Oregon shouldn't have lost at home, even without a quarterback. Auburn choked big-time. And Colorado is emerging as a real threat in the Big XII North. But this week will tell us a lot about which teams are legit, as most of the cupcakes are gone.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. USC (1), [2-0, DNP]
2. Oklahoma (2), [3-0, DNP]
3. Georgia (3), [4-0, Won at Arizona St 27-10]
4. Missouri (4), [4-0, Won vs. Buffalo 42-21]
5. Penn State (5), [4-0, Won vs. Temple 45-3]
6. BYU (6), [4-0, Won vs. Wyoming 44-0]
7. LSU (9), [3-0, Won at Auburn 26-21]
8. Florida (8), [4-0, Won at Tennessee 30-6]
9. South Florida (12), [4-0, Won at FIU 17-9]
10. Ohio State (10), [3-1, Won vs. Troy 28-10]
11. Wisconsin (11), [3-0, DNP]
12. Alabama (20), [4-0, Won at Arkansas 49-14]
13. Wake Forest (18), [3-0, Won at Florida St 12-3]
14. Texas Tech (14), [4-0, Won vs. UMass(AA) 56-14]
15. Utah (15), [3-0, Won at Air Force 30-23]
16. Texas (16), [4-0, Won vs. Rice 52-10]
17. Kentucky (17), [3-0, DNP]
18. Clemson (21), [3-1, Won vs. South Carolina St(AA) 54-0]
19. Auburn (13), [3-1, Lost vs. LSU 26-21]
20. Texas Christian (23), [4-0, Won at SMU 48-7]
21. Boise State (NR), [3-0, Won at Oregon 37-32]
22. Fresno State (22), [2-1, Won at Toledo 55-54(2OT)]
23. Colorado (NR), [3-0, Won vs. West Virginia 17-14]
24. Oregon (7), [3-1, Lost vs. Boise St 37-32]
25. East Carolina (19), [3-1, Lost at NC State 30-24(OT)]

Dropped Out:
West Virginia (24), [1-2, Lost at Colorado 17-14]
Nebraska (25), [3-0, DNP]

On the Cusp:
Vanderbilt (NR), [4-0, Won at Ole Miss 23-17]
Illinois (NR), [2-1, DNP]
Michigan State (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Notre Dame 23-7]
Virginia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won at North Carolina 20-17]
Georgia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Miss St 38-7]

*Coming Wednesday: Check out my chat with Paint The Town Orange, an Illini blog kind enough to cross enemy lines.

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