ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 5 2008

The top didn't move much again. Doesn't anyone else realize that USC has had two bye weeks so far? Just thought I'd mention that. Oregon shouldn't have lost at home, even without a quarterback. Auburn choked big-time. And Colorado is emerging as a real threat in the Big XII North. But this week will tell us a lot about which teams are legit, as most of the cupcakes are gone.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. USC (1), [2-0, DNP]
2. Oklahoma (2), [3-0, DNP]
3. Georgia (3), [4-0, Won at Arizona St 27-10]
4. Missouri (4), [4-0, Won vs. Buffalo 42-21]
5. Penn State (5), [4-0, Won vs. Temple 45-3]
6. BYU (6), [4-0, Won vs. Wyoming 44-0]
7. LSU (9), [3-0, Won at Auburn 26-21]
8. Florida (8), [4-0, Won at Tennessee 30-6]
9. South Florida (12), [4-0, Won at FIU 17-9]
10. Ohio State (10), [3-1, Won vs. Troy 28-10]
11. Wisconsin (11), [3-0, DNP]
12. Alabama (20), [4-0, Won at Arkansas 49-14]
13. Wake Forest (18), [3-0, Won at Florida St 12-3]
14. Texas Tech (14), [4-0, Won vs. UMass(AA) 56-14]
15. Utah (15), [3-0, Won at Air Force 30-23]
16. Texas (16), [4-0, Won vs. Rice 52-10]
17. Kentucky (17), [3-0, DNP]
18. Clemson (21), [3-1, Won vs. South Carolina St(AA) 54-0]
19. Auburn (13), [3-1, Lost vs. LSU 26-21]
20. Texas Christian (23), [4-0, Won at SMU 48-7]
21. Boise State (NR), [3-0, Won at Oregon 37-32]
22. Fresno State (22), [2-1, Won at Toledo 55-54(2OT)]
23. Colorado (NR), [3-0, Won vs. West Virginia 17-14]
24. Oregon (7), [3-1, Lost vs. Boise St 37-32]
25. East Carolina (19), [3-1, Lost at NC State 30-24(OT)]

Dropped Out:
West Virginia (24), [1-2, Lost at Colorado 17-14]
Nebraska (25), [3-0, DNP]

On the Cusp:
Vanderbilt (NR), [4-0, Won at Ole Miss 23-17]
Illinois (NR), [2-1, DNP]
Michigan State (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Notre Dame 23-7]
Virginia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won at North Carolina 20-17]
Georgia Tech (NR), [3-1, Won vs. Miss St 38-7]

*Coming Wednesday: Check out my chat with Paint The Town Orange, an Illini blog kind enough to cross enemy lines.

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 4 2008

It's no big shocker that USC held at No. 1. BYU and Wisconsin made the biggest jumps, as the Cougars' dismantling of UCLA was mostly ignored because of USC/Ohio State. While Ohio State and Auburn fell the farthest, with the Tigers' "win" was almost as bad as Penn State's infamous 6-4 loss to Iowa in 2004. Arizona State, Cal and Kansas dropped out completely. It was a fun week.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. USC (1), [2-0, Won vs. No. 2 Ohio State]
2. Oklahoma (4), [3-0, Won at Washington 55-14]
3. Georgia (3), [3-0, Won at South Carolina 14-7]
4. Missouri (6), [3-0, Won vs. Nevada 69-17]
5. Penn State (5), [3-0, Won at Syracuse 55-13]
6. BYU (10), [3-0, Won vs. UCLA 59-0]
7. Oregon (9), [3-0, Won at Purdue 32-26]
8. Florida (8), [2-0, DNP]
9. LSU (12), [2-0, Won vs. North Texas 41-3]
10. Ohio State (2), [2-1, Lost at No. 1 USC, 35-3]
11. Wisconsin (18), [3-0, Won at Fresno St. 13-10]
12. South Florida (16), [3-0, Won vs. No. 13 Kansas 37-34]
13. Auburn (7), [3-0, Won at Miss. St. 3-2]
14. Texas Tech (13), [3-0, Won vs. SMU 43-7]
15. Utah (14), [2-0, Won vs. Utah St. 58-10]
16. Texas (15), [2-0, DNP (PPD)]
17. Kentucky (21), [3-0, Won vs. MTSU 20-14]
18. Wake Forest (19), [2-0, DNP]
19. East Carolina (20), [3-0, Won at Tulane 28-24]
20. Alabama (25), [3-0, Won vs. W. Kentucky (I-AA) 41-7]
21. Clemson (NR), [2-1, Won vs. NC St. 27-9]
22. Fresno State (22), [1-1, Lost vs. No. 10 Wisconsin 13-10]
23. Texas Christian (NR), [3-0, Won vs. Stanford 31-14]
24. West Virginia (24), [1-1, DNP]
25. Nebraska (NR), [3-0, Won vs. New Mexico St. 38-7]

Dropped Out:
Arizona State (11), [2-1, Lost vs. UNLV 23-20]
California (17), [2-1, Lost at Maryland 35-27]
Kansas (23), [2-1, Lost at No. 19 USF 37-34]

On the Cusp:
Illinois (NR), [2-1, Won vs. ULL 20-17]
Michigan State (NR), [2-1, Won vs. Florida Atlantic 17-0]
Florida State (NR), [2-0, Won vs. Chattanooga 46-7]
Virginia Tech (NR), [2-1, Won vs. Georgia Tech 20-17]
Georgia Tech (NR), [2-1, Lost at Virginia Tech 20-17]

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ZN's CFB Top 25 :: Week 3 2008

There wasn't much movement this week. The biggest jumps were West Virginia (No. 8 to No. 24), East Carolina (Unranked to No. 20), and Penn State (No. 9 to No. 5). I know, you think I'm crazy for moving PSU so high, but I'm not the only one. So you can't call me just a homer. Ohio State needed a kick in the ass, so I moved them down. And yes, Georgia beat a MAC team. If a Big Ten team beat CMU, we'd hear "it's only a MAC team," but since UGA beat the Chipps, it's a "quality win" somehow. Bull. Enjoy.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. USC (2), [1-0, DNP]
2. Ohio State (1), [2-0, Def. Ohio 26-14]
3. Georgia (3), [2-0, Def. Central Michigan 56-17]
4. Oklahoma (4), [2-0, Def. Cincinnati 52-26]
5. Penn State (9), [2-0, Def. Oregon St 45-14]
6. Missouri (6), [2-0, Def. SE Missouri St 52-3]
7. Auburn (7), [2-0, Def. Southern Miss 27-13]
8. Florida (5), [2-0, Def. Miami 26-3]
9. Oregon (11), [2-0, Def. Utah St 66-24]
10. BYU (10), [2-0, Def. Washington 28-27]
11. Arizona State (13), [2-0, Def. Stanford 41-17]
12. LSU (12), [1-0, DNP (PPD)]
13. Texas Tech (14), [2-0, Def. Nevada 35-19]
14. Utah (16), [2-0, Def. UNLV 42-21]
15. Texas (15), [2-0, Def. UTEP 42-13]
16. South Florida (17), [2-0, Def. Central Florida 31-24 OT]
17. California (20), [2-0, Def. Washington St 66-3]
18. Wisconsin (18), [2-0, Def. Marshall 51-14]
19. Wake Forest (21), [2-0, Def. Ole Miss 30-28]
20. East Carolina (NR), [2-0, Def. No. 8 West Virginia 24-3]
21. Kentucky (19), [2-0, Def. Norfolk St (I-AA) 38-3]
22. Fresno State (22), [1-0, DNP]
23. Kansas (23), [2-0, Def. LaTech 29-0]
24. West Virginia (8), [1-1, Lost to East Carolina 24-3]
25. Alabama (24), [2-0, Def. Tulane 20-3]

Dropped Out:
Virginia Tech (25), [1-1, Def. Furman (I-AA) 24-3]

On the Cusp:
Clemson (NR), [1-1, Def. Citadel (I-AA) 45-17]
Georgia Tech (NR), [2-0, Def. Boston College 19-16]
Virginia Tech (25), [1-1, Def. Furman (I-AA) 24-3]
Illinois (NR), [1-1, Def. Eastern Illinois (I-AA) 47-21]
Michigan State (NR), [1-1, Def. Eastern Michigan 42-10]

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ZN’s CFB Top 25 :: Week 2 2008

Finally, we have some game results to go by. So here you go, the Week 2 top 25 for 2008. I wasn’t ready to follow the trend on all the teams, but Clemson just looked awful, Oregon looked great, and the non-BCS teams are on the prowl.

Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result].

1. Ohio State (1), [1-0, Def. Young. St. 43-0]
2. USC (3), [1-0, Def. Virginia 52-7]
3. Georgia (2), [1-0, Def. Ga. Southern 45-21]
4. Oklahoma (6), [1-0, Def. Chattanooga 57-2]
5. Florida (7), [1-0, Def. Hawai’i 56-10]
6. Missouri (4), [1-0, Def. No. 24 Illinois 52-42]
7. Auburn (5), [1-0, Def. ULM 34-0]
8. West Virginia (8), [1-0, Def. Villanova 48-21]
9. Penn State (11), [1-0, Def. Coastal Car. 66-10]
10. BYU (10), [1-0, Def. No. Iowa 41-17]
11. Oregon (19), [1-0, Def. Washington 44-10]
12. LSU (12), [0-0, Def. App. St. 41-13]
13. Arizona State (13), [1-0, Def. No. Arizona 30-13]
14. Texas Tech (15), [1-0, Def. E. Wash. 49-24]
15. Texas (17), [1-0, Def. FAU 52-10]
16. Utah (22), [1-0, Def. Michigan 25-23]
17. South Florida (23), [1-0, Def. Tenn-Martin 56-7]
18. Wisconsin (14), [1-0, Def. Akron 38-17]
19. Kentucky (NR), [1-0, Def. Louisville 27-2]
20. California (NR), [1-0, Def. No. 18 Michigan St. 38-31]
21. Wake Forest (NR), [1-0, Def. Baylor 41-13]
22. Fresno State (NR), [1-0, Def. No. 25 Rutgers 24-7]
23. Kansas (NR), [1-0, Def. FIU 40-10]
24. Alabama (NR), [1-0, Def. No. 9 Clemson 34-10]
25. Virginia Tech (16), [0-1, Lost to E. Carolina 27-22]

Dropped Out:
Clemson (9), [0-1, Lost to Alabama 34-10]
Rutgers (25), [0-1, Lost to Fresno St. 24-7]
Oregon State (20), [0-1, Lost to Stanford 38-26]
Michigan State (18), [0-1, Lost to California 38-31]
Pittsburgh (21), [0-1, Lost to Bowling Green 27-17]
Illinois (24), [0-1, Lost to No. 4 Missouri 52-42]

On the Cusp:
East Carolina (NR), [1-0, Def. No. 16 Va Tech 27-22]
South Carolina (NR), [1-0, Def. N.C. St. 34-0]
Boston College (NR), [1-0, Def. Kent St. 21-0]
Cincinnati (NR), [1-0, Def. E. Kentucky 40-7]
Connecticut (NR), [1-0, Def. Hofstra 35-3]

Ed. note - I'm bumping the Paterno press conference stuff until tomorrow. I'll also have the Big Ten Bloggers roundtable.

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ZN’s CFB Top 25 :: Week 1 2008

There was some big movement in the ZN Top 25 since we last ranked teams on June 13, 2008. The biggest reasons for some of these changes included more consideration of the strength of schedule, major injuries and player losses. So here you go, the Week 1 top 25 for 2008.

*Rank. Team (LW), [Record, LW Result] - Comment on the team.
1. Ohio State (6), [0-0, DNP] - I know I’m inviting criticism for sounding like a total homer, but I realized that OSU has been suffering from prejudice. Because they lost the last two BCS title games, the media has been scared to peg the Bucks No. 1. I’m not scared anymore.
2. Georgia (1), [0-0, DNP] - It’s not a huge drop, but something just doesn’t seem right in Athens, Ga. It’s almost like this team is too good.
3. USC (7), [0-0, DNP] - Even with the Sanchez injury, the Trojans are the only team with talent like this. Now, it all depends how Pete Carroll puts it all together.
4. Missouri (5), [0-0, DNP] - This is a team not many are talking about on a national scale. I am. The Tigers will only meet Oklahoma in the Big XII title game, and in a battle of quarterbacks, I’ll give the (extremely) slight edge to Chase Daniel.
5. Auburn (8), [0-0, DNP] - I get this creepy feeling about what Tommy Tuberville is cooking down south. If the Peach Bowl was a true preview of the 2008 Tigers, look out SEC title game.
6. Oklahoma (2), [0-0, DNP] - The more I look at the Sooners, the more fragile they look. The offense will be fine by all measures, but the defense not so much, especially in the secondary.
7. Florida (4), [0-0, DNP] - The injuries are really killing the Gators’ mojo right now. Between TE Ingram’s ACL (not to mention FOUR other players lost to ACL injuries), and the fact that Percy Harvin hasn’t done squat this summer, don’t expect a fast start this year.
8. West Virginia (9), [0-0, DNP] - WVU has something to prove this season: that it can win without Rich Rodriguez. All the pieces are there to get to a BCS bowl.
9. Clemson (18), [0-0, DNP] - I haven’t seen another ACC team that could contend with Clemson’s potential. But how often have we heard that before?
10. BYU (11), [0-0, DNP] - The Cougars should coast to a 10-win record. But if they play up to their billing, BYU will win a lot more than the conference.
11. Penn State (10), [0-0, DNP] - Between the injuries and the dismissal of a few players, there are some growing doubts about how high this team can reach. The Lions are still the second best in the Big Ten, though.
12. LSU (12), [0-0, DNP] - Call it a rebuilding year in the bayou, but a nice Cotton Bowl bid is possible for the Tigers.
13. Arizona State (13), [0-0, DNP] - Maturity was this team’s biggest problem last year. It shouldn’t be so in 2008, but don’t exactly count on a magical BCS run.
14. Wisconsin (15), [0-0, DNP] - You won’t find a better running back/offensive line situation outside of Madison. Yes, that even includes USC.
15. Texas Tech (14), [0-0, DNP] - You can only outscore so many teams. Luckily, TT can do just that. Keep in mind, however, that TT plays in one of the toughest divisions in college football.
16. Virginia Tech (16), [0-0, DNP] - Count on the Hokies vs. Clemson in the ACC title game. Don’t count on the Hokies in that one.
17. Texas (17), [0-0, DNP] - I don’t see the Longhorns of old coming back in 2008. Hey, the Holiday Bowl isn’t all that bad... again.
18. Michigan State (25), [0-0, DNP] - These days, eight wins will get a team ranked, provided it played a good schedule. MSU has all that, and some, going for it in 2008.
19. Oregon (NR), [0-0, DNP] - With one of the best secondaries in the nation, UO is setting itself up nicely for a strong Pac-10 run.
20. Oregon State (19), [0-0, DNP] - Be sure to tune in for the Civil War this year, which could end up being a low-scoring defensive football game.
21. Pittsburgh (20), [0-0, DNP] - If the passing game does anything this year, Pitt will easily go bowling. The question is from there, how high will the Panthers climb?
22. Utah (NR), [0-0, DNP] - This team is finally out from under the 2004 Utes’ shadow. Now it’s their time to shine, and should do just that in 2008.
23. South Florida (NR), [0-0, DNP] - The problem is that the Big East isn’t as soft as everyone’s made it out to be.
24. Illinois (NR), [0-0, DNP] - Rose Bowl or not, the Illini weren’t good enough for the BCS last year, and sure aren’t good enough for it this year’s tough schedule. Harsh, but true.
25. Rutgers (NR), [0-0, DNP] - I’m going out on a limb here, but the loss of Ray Rice isn’t all that bad. Enough key players return to propel the Knights into the rankings again.

Dropped Out:
Tennessee
Mississippi State
Boston College

On the Cusp:
South Carolina (NR), [0-0, DNP]
Tennessee (22), [0-0, DNP]
California (NR), [0-0, DNP]
Mississippi State (23), [0-0, DNP]
Wake Forest (NR), [0-0, DNP]

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ZN's College Football Top 25 :: Pre-Preseason 2008

Now that spring practice is long gone and signing day a distant memory, we’re finally getting our first good look at the teams going into 2008. Stocks have risen and fallen, some up like a rocket and some down with a thud. It pains me to say this, but on paper, the SEC should retain its top conference reputation. I’d follow that closely by the Big XII, and then the Big Ten. It’s not the usual landscape we’ve been used to, with teams like Kansas, Missouri up top, and Illinois and Pitt bringing back old memories. 2008 should be a very fun year for college football. At least, I think it will be.

Rank. Team (Last Week), [Record will go here during season] – Comment on each team.

1. Georgia (1) – I’m sticking to my guns. Georgia returns a great core of elite players like Stafford, Moreno and that top-notch defense.
2. Oklahoma (7) – I know the Sooners bombed in the bowl, but I think this year will be special in Norman. The Big XII Championship Game will be must-see TV.
3. Kansas (3) – Kansas’ defense was the real star in 2007, but even with some losses, the offense will be even better in 2008.
4. Florida (11) – The only reason I didn’t put Florida at No. 1 is because I think Georgia will win the conference and play in the title game. But if the Gators beat UGA, Florida fans can book tickets to Miami.
5. Missouri (4) – The Tigers were royally screwed out of a BCS bid (ala Wisconsin 2006), and could take home the North title again this year. But I’m giving the early edge to KU in 2008.
6. Ohio State (5) – Too low? Ok, Buckeyes prove me wrong. The only way the Big Ten champ plays in the title game is by going undefeated. I don’t see that happening in 2008.
7. USC (6) – Similar to the Big Ten, if the Pac-10 champ loses even one game, they’re out of the title hunt. But you can switch OSU/USC based on the winner of their September match up.
8. Auburn (16) – I’m riding the Tiger wave right now. Seeing Auburn’s new spread look, combined with Tommy Tuberville’s very underrated coaching, gives me reason to peg this team as the SEC West champ.
9. West Virginia (3) – The Mountaineers could win 11 games, and still end up this low. But I’m not going to count them out yet. This ranking will depend heavily on how tough the Big East is in 2008.
10. Penn State (10) – I told you I wasn’t moving the Lions from this spot. The No. 10 ranking in college football is sort of tricky, as that team will be assumed to be in the BCS picture. PSU will be the second-best Big Ten team, and land a second BCS bid for the conference.
11. BYU (15) – This team came within a hair of the BCS in 2007, and with so much returning, there’s no reason to think the Cougars can’t do much more in 2008.
12. LSU (12) – Talk about a big step back. I know, SEC fans will freak, but come on. Someone has to win the West, and it won’t be LSU.
13. Arizona State (18) – Arizona State only goes this high because Dennis Erickson is the coach. Pull off one huge upset, like USC, and this will be the darling team for 2008.
14. Texas Tech (19) – Some people actually have the Red Raiders going to the BCS. It’s not that they can’t, but the Oklahoma win last year was against a depleted Sooner team. Tech won’t do that again.
15. Wisconsin (17) – This team has the potential to win 10 regular-season games, but will most likely wind up losing one it’s not supposed to. This will look more like the Ron Dayne Badgers of old.
16. Virginia Tech (8) – I dropped the Hokies because they’ll need some consistency before moving back up in the rankings. I really like Sean Glennon, but the losses on defense will hurt.
17. Texas (9) – Everyone’s jumping off the Longhorns bandwagon, and I’m one of them. Colt McCoy will have a fantastic season, but the team as a whole doesn’t have what it needs to return to the elite in 2008.
18. Clemson (NR) – With the best running back tandem in football, and a killer (well, for the ACC) defense, the Tigers will turn some heads by November. This might not be the Tommy Bowden teams we’re used to.
19. Oregon State (21) – After listening to Oregon State fans bash me for the last month, I’m beginning to come around to the Beavers. They’ll still have to deal with a rough schedule from start to finish, but should win their bowl and reach eight victories.
20. Pittsburgh (23) – One big upset will get you far in college football, and the Panthers’ win over West Virginia did just that. If Pitt plays like it did in that game, look for a really big jump in the 2008 win column.
21. Illinois (25) – I’m not so sure I’m comfortable with this pick. The Illini lose a lot on both sides of the ball, and the recruiting classes haven’t yet added enough depth to sustain eight- or nine-win seasons.
22. Tennessee (14) – Playing in the SEC never hurts the media’s perception of a team, and the Vols will benefit from playing in the East. Don’t expect a huge year in 2008, but it won’t be like the meltdown of 2005.
23. Mississippi St. (24) – Sly Croom finally turned it around for the Bulldogs. There are some really good players coming back, and this program wants to prove 2007 wasn’t a fluke.
24. Boston College (13) – Some leave, some return for the Eagles. Although I don’t envision any No. 2 rankings for 2008, I do see this program sustaining its long run of winning seasons.
25. Michigan State (NR) – This is sort of my wildcard pick. Mark D’Antonio is a great motivator, and all his teams play like Rocky Balboa losing to Apollo Creed. I’m calling for one big upset in 2008 to launch the Spartans into a new era in East Lansing.

Dropped Out:

Michigan (20) – Poor, poor Michigan. This program has enjoyed continued success for 40 years. They knew it would come to an end sometime, and 2008 is it. They won’t implode like PSU in ’03 or Notre Dame in ’07, but a losing season is more than possible.

On the Cusp:

South Carolina (NR) – This is Steve Spurrier’s program finally, and he knows how to run a winner. If things fall right for the ‘Cocks, this could be the surprise team in the SEC East.
California (NR) – When Cal is ranked too low, they perform well. The Bears are better than a non-ranked team, but they’re also a team that can’t win when it has to. This is one of those “prove it” teams for 2008.
Rutgers (NR) – Even with Ray Rice gone, the offense will run on all cylinders in 2008. And with the elite recruits pouring into New Brunswick, the Knights are here to stay.
Utah (NR) – I don’t see the Utes beating BYU this year, and could very well drop one or two more. Unfortunately for a non-BCS team, three losses won’t get you ranked.
Oregon (NR) – The Ducks won’t be the killers they were last season, but there’s talent waiting in the wings to fill in for departed stars.

Previous Rankings:
Jan. 10, 2008

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If you want respect, schedule good teams, part 4 of 4

----Everyone argues that strength of schedule should mean everything in college football, until someone calls their team out on scheduling Directional Community College...

Part 3/4., Part 2/4., Part 1/4.

So this is it, the final installment of the Schedules series. I hope it wasn't too painful for you. I tried to take a serious look into what teams have done well and what teams haven't in terms of scheduling tough games. In part four, I'm going to run down which games I'm most looking forward to in 2008. These are all out-of-conference games, because I figure conference games always mean something and a team doesn't have a choice to play those games. These are games that teams chose to play. In no particular order, I give you the best OOC games in 2008.

***Not all of the schedules have been finalized, so I may do a revised version of this list in August.

Ohio State (11-2) at Southern Cal (11-2) – If this isn’t the top game in September; you’re not watching the right sport. While everyone will be calling the Buckeyes doomed before they even step into the Coliseum, USC loses a good number of excellent players. I don’t see this one as a blowout in either direction. This prediction means nothing right now, but: OSU 26-21

Georgia (11-2) @ Arizona State (9-4) – The Sun Devils were rolling right along until a late-season mediocre fest. If this game was to be played in Athens, it wouldn’t even really be on this list. However, Georgia will travel farther to Tempe than it did all of last season combined. With a guy like Dennis Erickson at the helm, you never know what can happen in the desert. This prediction means nothing right now, but: UGA 35-20

Missouri (12-2) vs. Illinois (9-4) – (In St. Louis) Chances are that you didn’t see last season’s edition of this game in St. Louis. I’ll also bet that you’ll make it a priority to see it in 2008. With the Illini coming off a Rose Bowl bid—as bad as it was—and the Tigers proving to be better than most BCS teams that leaped over them, this is appointment September viewing. This prediction means nothing right now, but: Ill 41-38

Kansas (12-1) @ South Florida (9-4) – South Florida shouldn’t have been at the No. 2 spot last season. But it was deserving of the praise showering it got after knocking off teams like Auburn and West Virginia. Kansas proved its worth by sticking it to Virginia Tech in one of the better BCS games in recent memory. I’m wondering which quarterback will have the better day, Todd Reesing or Matt Grothe? This prediction means nothing right now, but: KU 21-18

Auburn (10-3) @ West Virginia (11-2) – How much did Rich Rodriguez mean to the Mountaineers? With Steve Slaton moving on, can Noel Devine step in and become a real starter? Moreover, will Auburn’s experimentation with the spread offense finally kick start the point production? These are the huge question marks going into this game. How many of those will be answered? This prediction means nothing right now, but: AU 34-31

Appalachian State (13-2) @ Louisiana State (12-2) – If the Tigers beat the Mountaineers, Michigan fans will never hear the end of it. Actually, the entire Big Ten will somehow sink even lower in the minds of SEC fans. That aside, Appalachian State returns most of its national championship team, while LSU loses most of its own ring wearers. This game’s in Baton Rouge, so figure it will give LSU the edge it usually gets with the home crowd. This prediction means nothing right now, but: LSU 28-24

Michigan (9-4) @ Notre Dame (3-9) – Regardless of what the common folk think, this game is huge for both teams. It will be a test for both coaches, as Charlie Weis will try to show 2007 was a fluke, and Rich Rodriguez will try to show that Michigan 2008 will not become Notre Dame 2007. The Irish have beaten the Wolverines a couple times at home recently, so look for a much better showing this time around in South Bend. This prediction means nothing right now, but: UM 20-17

Bonus Game

Michigan (9-4) @ Penn State (9-4) – This one’s for me. For the last six years, I’ve been one of those people saying “If Penn State can’t beat Michigan THIS year…” So I’m hoping that will ring true in 2008. These games have been surprisingly close the last four meetings, with the Nittany Lions only a mistake or two away from pulling out a win. These are two teams heading in almost opposite directions. Michigan hasn’t looked this vulnerable, well, ever. We’ll see. This prediction means nothing right now, but: PSU 29-20

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If you want respect, schedule good teams, Part 2 of 4

2/4.

Everyone argues that strength of schedule should mean everything in college football, until someone calls their team out on scheduling Directional Community College...

As promised, here's the top five toughest schedules BCS bowl teams have played from 2003 through 2007. In case you're already thinking of your team's "really, really tough [insert year here] slate," here's my criteria for selection:

-I-AA schools! If a team played anyone outside I-A, they're automatically out. A team should never be rewarded for playing those games. Frankly, I'd rather the NCAA force teams to take a bye that week instead of paying a couple hundred grand for a win. I realize that Florida International might get beaten nine times out of ten versus Appalachian State, but it doesn't matter. ASU is in I-AA. If they want to be considered on the same level as I-AA, then apply for that level and move up. If you want proof of my convictions, I would have left off Penn State's 2006 schedule in a heart beat if they made the BCS. Why? Youngstown State. If Penn State makes it to the BCS in 2008, they're not making the list either. Why? Coastal Carolina. If you want respect, play teams from your own division.

-Opponent records, looking back. Was a team good at the beginning of the season, only to implode and prove to be a bad team? Look at Ohio State's win versus Washington in 2007. The Huskies were coming off a victory over Boise State, 2-0 and a star quarterback in Jake Locker. Ohio State beat them handily, and everyone was praising the Buckeyes. Washington turned out to be a bad team, at 4-8. And what about Boise State, which lost in week to to Washington? That loss didn't look so bad when Washington was 2-0, but now that's considered a real bad loss.

-Opponent conference affiliations. OK, I know I'm one of the first to argue that the SEC is not the juggernaught its fans want to think it is, but it's still one of the top conferences each season. That being said, if a team like Notre Dame in 2005 convincingly defeats Tennessee, even thought he Vols finished 5-6, it still counts more that beating a 5-6 ACC or Pac-10 team. (By the way, that Vols team beat LSU in Baton Rouge) Beating a mid-level Big Ten or SEC team is much better than beating the Sun Belt or MAC champions.

So here's what I came up with. Debate all you want, but you're not going to be able to convince me your team's schedule was harder in the last five years. THIS IS ALL IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER!

Just missed the cut. Close, but not tough enough...

West Virginia's 2007 schedule was tougher than most think. Mississippi State proved to be a worthy opponent to at least eight teams, and East Carolina came on strong. Oklahoma, regardless of what happened in the bowl, was still a powerfull team in 2007:

I think Texas' 2005 slate was bolstered mostly due to the night game at Ohio State. If the Longhorns had played one more tough road game, or at least one more top-15 team, this schedule would have made the top five:

Sure, Miami played a lot of really good teams in 2003, but it also played in the Big East and a game against a pathetic ECU team. There were tons of somewhat tough games, but none that particularly stood out:

Ohio State put on a good show in 2006 until getting pantsed in the championship game, but that didn't take away from the strength of their schedule that season. Playing a night game away versus the defending national champ will always gain you brownie points, but too many teams on this schedule turned out to be mediocre:

I know what you're thinking, "How did Notre Dame even get consideration in the first place?" Well, I hate to burst your bubble. The Irish's schedule in 2005 wasn't out of this world, but it definately wasn't as easy as you thought. Just having USC on there brought it out of the depths, and playing a bunch of bowl teams gave it the edge over many others:


Now for The Top Five Toughest Schedules Played by BCS Bowl Teams From 2003-2007...

I bet you looked down before finishing this, noticed Michigan, and though "Yeah, right." Hold on there cap'n. Playing in Autzen Stadium has been the death of many great teams, and matchups against Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State and USC far outweigh the games against Indiana and Illinois. Add Purdue to that, and you have five ranked teams:

Why do you think it was such a big deal when West Virginia beat Georgia in the 2006 Sugar Bowl? This is why. The Bulldogs faced only six bowl teams in the regular season, but three other teams were one win away from bowl eligibility. LSU was probably one of the top two teams in the nation, but no one knew it. I hate to admit it, but getting throught teh SEC is really hard to do:

Scream all you want about Oklahoma's struggles in the Fiesta Bowl lately, but the 2006 schedule was much harder than most thought at the time. Eight bowl teams, and a Washington team one win from eligibility, sets this slate a notch higher than it could be. Plus, losing to Boise State that year wasn't all that bad, even if the Sooners should have won. The two BCS OOC games did it for me:

Here's my top underrated schedule on this list. Ohio State played two bowl-eligible BCS teams OOC, and a ranked, MAC champion Bowling Green squad. Going up against ten bowl eligible teams--five ranked--isn't something you run into every day. I wasn't totally convinced with this schedule, until realizing that the Buckeyes didn't really get a break outside of the Indiana game:

Remember, this is in no particular order. So you SEC fans don't go thinking that I put LSU here because I think they had the hardest schedule since 2003. But if you want to find a great schedule, look at LSU's 2006 docket. I really think that the 2006 Tigers were better than the rankings indicated. I'd like to see your team go through five ranked SEC teams in one year, including the eventual national champ, Florida. Tulane and Fresno St. turned out to be quite cakie, but the rest of the teams more than made up for it:

So that's it. Sorry it took so long to get this up, but hey, I'm not getting paid to do this. I don't know yet when I'll have Schedules, Part 3 up, but I'll keep you updated as to its progress.

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Article of the day

I generally try to feature an article each day from another blog. Usually they're from Penn State or Big Ten blogs, sometimes from other sites. Please check out the author's Web site. I always supply the link in the introduction.

Yet again, Stewart Mandel has blessed us with his college football wisdom. He posted his very early 2008 top 25 power rankings. I'm not going to post the whole list here, as it's way to long. So, let's just say Penn State is about where it should be ranked.

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Article of the day

I generally try to feature an article each day from another Big Ten blog. Usually they're from Penn State blogs, sometimes from other sites. Please check out the author's Web site. I always supply the link in the introduction.

Holly crap in a box, the world is officially going to hell! CollegeFootballNews.com just released its first preseason rankings for 2008. And, to the surprise of almost everyone outside of the state between Pennsylvania and Indiana, Ohio State is ranked an early No. 1. Nearly as surprising, CFN has plopped Penn State in at a hefty No. 11--yes, that's one rank outside of the top 10--how scary. Many were pegging Penn State as a darkhorse MNC contender for 2007, but looking at the current situation, there's a better chance that could happen this season. Trouble is, those darn Buckeyes are really, really good again.

1. Ohio State 2007 Record: 11-2
SEC fans will go ballistic at the notion, and America might let out a collective groan at the thought of OSU in another national title game, but with all the returning talent, this really should be 2008's best team. Remember, 2007 was supposed to be a rebuilding year and a stepping-stone to this season. Getting to the national championship was unexpected gravy. Shock of shocks, most of the stars decided to come back for one more year with DE Vernon Gholston the only early defector.

The Buckeyes don't have the speed or athleticism of the top teams, right? The NFL certainly doesn't think so with at least 11 starters, not including both kickers, who'll be drafted with five, LB James Laurinaitis, LB Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, RB Beanie Wells, and OT Alex Boone, who'd be starting on day one of the 2008 NFL season.

A national punching bag after two straight blowout losses in BCS Championships, the Buckeyes will be good enough to get another shot with almost everyone of note returning on offense including QB Todd Boeckman and top receivers Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie. The defense might lose Gholston and LB Larry Grant, but nine starters are back. PK Ryan Pretorius and P A.J. Trapasso form one of the nation's best kicking duos.

2. Georgia 2007 Record: 11-2
The expectations are off the charts after a seven-game winning streak ended 2007 and with almost all the top players coming back on both sides of the ball. The receiving corps could use an overall upgrade, and strong safety Kelin Johnson and end Marcus Howard will be missed, but that's nitpicking. The only other concern is the lack of a safety net behind Knowshon Moreno in the backfield, and Matthew Stafford has to become the NFL caliber quarterback he's expected to be, but this is a true national title contender from day one.

3. Oklahoma 2007 Record: 11-3
This is a national title-caliber team if the offensive line plays up to its talent-level. With OG Duke Robinson, OT Phil Loadholt and the rest of the starters back, this should be the nation's best front five to give QB Sam Bradford and RBs DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown time and room to work. WR Malcolm Kelly is gone, but Juaquin Iglesias was the team's best receiver over the course of 2007. Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Curtis Lofton and CB Reggie Smith left early, and some other big voids need to be filled in the secondary, but this should still be one of the league's best defenses.

4. Florida 2007 Record: 9-4
2006 might have been Urban Meyer coaching Ron Zook's team, 2007 might have been about restocking the shelves, and now 2008 will be all about Meyer's program getting back to a national title level. Top receiver Andre Caldwell is gone, two starters have to be replaced on the offensive line, and pass rushing star Derrick Harvey and strong safety Tony Joiner have to be replaced. That's about it. The running game will be better with USC transfer Emmanuel Moody expected to rock and roll right away, while Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin might just be the two best offensive players in America.

5. USC 2007 Record: 11-2
Because of the brand name and the way the 2007 season ended, the Trojans will be in everyone's top three, if not number one. However, there are issues. The jury is still out on a receiving corps that underperformed, Mark Sanchez and/or Mitch Mustain has to prove worthy of running the show, three starters have to be replaced on the O line, and a few key parts are gone off the killer defense. Of course, this is USC, it reloads, but this isn't nearly as good a team as the one going into last year.

6. LSU 2007 Record: 12-2
Alright Les, it's all your program now. With a national title and three years at the helm, Miles has to replace several key players on his "damn good football team" along with defensive coordinator Bo Pelini. Ricky Jean-Francois needs to be the new star on the D line and Tyson Jackson has to play up to his pro potential, while defensive back seven has to replace outside linebackers Ali Highsmith and Luke Sanders along with safety Craig Steltz and corner Chevis Jackson. The offense loses WR Early Doucet, steady QB Matt Flynn, and bruising RB Jacob Hester. Even though another national title will be a lot to ask for, the attack should keep rolling with Ryan Perrilloux at quarterback behind a great line.

7. Wisconsin 2007 Record: 9-4
If everyone can stay healthy, unlike 2007, the Badgers should be special. P.J. Hill, Lance Smith and Zach Brown form one of the nation's best trio of running backs working behind a loaded line with four starters returning. Former Kansas State transfer Allan Evridge has to establish himself at quarterback right away, but getting TE Travis Beckum back will help. CB Jack Ikegwuonu took off early for the NFL, but the D is loaded, especially at linebacker. The graduation of PK Taylor Mehlhaff and P Ken DeBauche will hurt.

8. Missouri 2007 Record: 12-2
The Tigers are loaded. TE Chase Coffman returning for his senior season was a big step to give Heisman finalist Chase Daniel a star security blanket to go to. Finding a running back to replace Tony Temple will be the biggest issue, but Derrick Washington is a big-time prospect and there are enough playmakers, and enough experience on the line, to expect another strong season. DT Lorenzo Williams is gone, but nine starters are back to go along with PK Jeff Wolfert.

9. West Virginia 2007 Record: 12-2
Call this a wait-and-see ranking considering the new coaching staff and some key losses. Bill Stewart loses Steve Slaton and Darius Reynaud early to the NFL, but that would've happened if Rich Rodriguez was still around. QB Pat White and WR/RB Noel Devine will be the stars of the attack working behind a fantastic O line with all five starters returning including OT Ryan Stanchek. The defense has to make some major replacements with Keilen Dykes and Johnny Dingle gone off the line along with four starters in the five man secondary, including SS Eric Wicks and FS Ryan Mundy.

10. Texas Tech 2007 Record: 9-4
Oh ... my ... goodness. Texas Tech had the nation's No. 1 passing offense and was No. 2 in total offense ,and now everyone is back but WR Danny Amendola. WR Michael Crabtree, QB Graham Harrell, all five starting offensive linemen, along with their backups ... everyone. LB Paul Williams and CB Chris Parker, who are all replaceable, are two of the three losses off the defense. The other, SS Joe Garcia, will hurt. The team's biggest hole loss, other than Amendola and Garcia, is clutch PK Alex Trlica.

11. Penn State 2007 Record: 9-4
The receiving corps should be fantastic with Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood back, but who's going to throw him the ball? Daryll Clark will have the inside track, adding more running to the mix, but Pat Devlin will get a shot. Everyone is back on the O line and nine starters return on defense losing LB Dan Connor along with CB Justin King, who left early for the NFL.

12. Tennessee 2007 Record: 10-4
Offensive David Cutcliffe to Duke is the biggest loss with QB Erik Ainge not far behind. Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stephens will battle for the starting quarterback gig with a loaded backfield and a nasty offensive line to work with. All five starters return up front, all the receivers are back, and the secondary, even without Jonathan Hefney, should be fine. The much-maligned defensive front will be the biggest problem losing three starters on the line along with linebackers Ryan Karl and Jerod Mayo.

13. Kansas 2007 Record: 12-1
Can Kansas really be a preseason top five team? Even after a 12-1 season with an Orange Bowl victory, it still seems strange to think of KU as elite, but the team should be the real deal with QB Todd Reesing leading a loaded offense, even with the loss of OT Anthony Collins, WR Marcus Henry and RB Brandon McAnderson. DT James McClinton is done and CB Aqib Talib left early, but the other nine starters are back. Both kickers need to be replaced.

14. Auburn 2007 Record: 9-4
Will the Tony Franklin offense be ready to fly right away? Is Kody Burns ready to be the spread quarterback to jump-start the attack? The running game should be tremendous with all five starters on the O line back along with top running backs, Brad Lester, Ben Tate and Mario Fannin. The defensive line needs three new starters to go around Sen'Derrick Marks, but six of the starters are back in the back seven.

15. Texas 2007 Record: 10-3
Was the Holiday Bowl the spark for a big 2008? QB Colt McCoy leads a strong offense that should be fine even with RB Jamaal Charles and TE Jermichael Finley bolting early. The O line was a big problem, but for good or bad, all the starters return. Defense is a big issue losing tackles Frank Okam and Derek Lokey along with five starters in the back seven. New coordinator Will Muschamp should change things in a big hurry.

16. Oregon 2007 Record: 9-4
The silver lining in the loss of Dennis Dixon late in the year was the experience Justin Roper got. He'll battle with Cody Kempt for the starting job with the winner getting a fantastic receiving corps to work with, led by Jaison Williams, but RB Jonathan Stewart is gone. C Max Unger leads a tremendous offensive line, while pass rushing terror Nick Reed should grow into a superstar. The defensive tackles are gone and there are some holes to fill at linebacker, but the defense should be better.

17. Virginia Tech 2007 Record: 11-3
The defending ACC champions should be take a step back unless the defensive line and receiving corps can reload. This is a running team and anyone who gets the ball will produce behind a good line with four starters returning. Will the offense continue with the two-headed quarterback attack of Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor, or will Taylor take over? Taylor and his running skills might be needed with Branden Ore gone early. Along with issues on the line, the D loses corner Brandon Flowers, and most painfully, the linebacking tandem of Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi.

18. Illinois 2007 Record: 9-4
The loss of Big Ten Player of the Year Rashard Mendenhall will set the running game back a bit, but the biggest issue is up the middle on defense with DT Chris Norwell, LB J Leman and safeties Kevin Mitchell and Justin Harrison gone. The top-shelf recruiting classes under Ron Zook should kick in full force on both sides of the ball and now the expectations will be there.

19. Boston College 2007 Record: 12-2
Don't expect a major drop-off even with the loss of three offensive linemen, QB Matt Ryan and RB Andre Callender and L.V. Whitworth. Why? Defense. Eight starters are back, and while losing FS Jamie Silva and DE Nick Larkin will be felt, this should still be one of the ACC's best Ds.

20. Clemson 2007 Record: 9-4
It's all up to the offensive line that only gets back one starter, C Thomas Austin. QB Cullen Harper is an ultra-accurate passer who gets top targets Aaron Kelly and Tyler Grisham back to light up the ACC, but the real star should be RB C.J. Spiller with James Davis jetting early for the NFL. It would've been nice if DE Phillip Merling returned for his senior year, but as is, eight starters return including everyone in the secondary.

21. Michigan 2007 Record: 9-4
Expect a step back to take a big leap forward, at least offensively. There could've been one of the nation's best passing games with Ryan Mallett throwing to Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington, but they all took off. Who's the quarterback? Georgia Tech transfer Steven Threet? He's a passer, but Rich Rodriguez will want a dual-threat playmaker meaning Terrelle Pryor, the nation's top recruit, could be coming to Ann Arbor, or Carlos Brown could step in from the running back corps. The defense takes a big hit, but DT Terrance Taylor should be a strong anchor to build around.

22. BYU 2007 Record: 11-2
Looking for your early sleeper for an at-large BCS spot? BYU gets everyone back on offense but C Sete Aulai and WR Matt Allen. QB Max Hall and the running tandem of Harvey Unga and Fui Vakapuna will have to put up plenty of points early on with three starters gone out of the secondary along with three of the four starting linebackers, but pass rushing star Jan Jorgensen is back.

23. South Carolina 2007 Record: 6-6
The SEC East might be loaded, but anything less than being in the hunt for the division title until the end will be unacceptable. The time is now for Steve Spurrier to actually do something with the program. QB Chris Smelley, WR Kenny McKinley, and RB Mike Davis form a nice nucleus, four starters return to the offensive line, and outside of the Brinkley brothers, everyone is back on defense.

24. Alabama 2007 Record: 7-6
Nick Saban's first season was supposed to be about building towards the future, and now the future has to be now. The offensive line has the potential to be the best in the SEC, while all the top running backs, and QB John Parker Wilson, return in the backfield. The receiving corps has to replace D.J. Hall and Matt Caddell, while the defense has to find replacement for end Wallace Gilberry, two linebackers and top CB Simeon Castille.

25. Wake Forest 2007 Record: 9-4
Can Jim Grobe come up with a third straight strong season? Absolutely. QB Riley Skinner and RB Josh Adams are back to ease the loss of pass-catching machine Kenneth Moore, and only two starters are gone off the line. The defense gets back star CB Alphonso Smith and the linebacking tandem of Aaron Curry and Stanley Arnoux, but the line has to replace three starters. P/PK Sam Swank is back for what seems like his 19th year in a Demon Deacon uniform.

Check out the rest of the 119 teams by clicking on the article's link at the top of this page.

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ZN's Waaayyy too early 2008 Preseason Top 25

Is the Big XII North back? Will the SEC use one good team again as the basis for their “we’re the best” argument? Can the Big Ten rebound from its bad luck? And what will USC do in 2008?

Let’s assume the players who have a good chance at leaving for the NFL do just that. McFadden, Rice, Arrington, Smith and other are near locks. Also, with Ryan Mallet transferring, and Michigan not sure if it’ll get Pryor, that ranking isn’t very solid across the board. So take into account those different possibilities and things like them, when going down the top 25.

Rank. Team (ZN Final Top 25 Rank, ‘07), Record ’07 – Short comment on each team.

1. Georgia (4), 11-2 – There’s not a more talented team in 2008, with this many returning starters.
2. Kansas (3), 12-1 – Smart football should result in another run for the BCS, or at least the Big XII.
3. West Virgina, 11-2 (2) – This could be a bit high, considering a new coach and all, but I have a feeling there’ll be no drop off in ’08.
4. Missouri (5), 12-2 – With a strong returning core, the Tigers will be the team to beat in the Big XII North.
5. Ohio State (6), 11-2 – Remember, ’07 was supposed to be the reloading year; now, the Bucks are even more experienced.
6. USC, 11-2 (7) – The loss of Booty will hurt, but ’07 was supposed to be USC’s year until injuries struck.
7. Oklahoma (13), 11-3 – The Sooners were healthy for the bowl, so there was no excuse for losing, except experience, which they’ll have in ’08.
8. Virginia Tech (10), 11-3 – I don’t have a good feeling about this one; but you never know what Frank Beamer will pull from his hat.
9. Texas, 10-3 (8) – This year’s Red River Shootout will be the best since Vince Young and Adrian Peterson.
10. Penn State, 9-4 (17) – NO, I’m not being biased. If you do your research, this Lions team loses only three starters.
11. Florida, 9-4 (20) – It could be a huge rebound year for the Gators, if Tebow stays healthy.
12. LSU (1), 12-2 – This was the best team, when healthy, in ’07; but it loses so many key starters.
13. Boston College, 11-3 (9) – Losing Matt Ryan is never a sign of improvement.
14. Tennessee, 10-4 (11) – Imagine if Ryan Mallet goes to the Vols? Another, “pretty good” season in ’08.
15. BYU, 11-2 (12) – This team was very close to a BCS bid in ’07; look for another run in ’08.
16. Auburn, 9-4 (19) – The Tigers have a lot a great young stars waiting in the wings, and showed some of their stuff in the bowl win.
17. Wisconsin, 9-4 (23) – I don’t know if losing Tyler Donovan is a good or bad thing.
18. Arizona State, 10-3 (25) – Dennis Erickson is an absolute genius; Rudy Carpenter will be a senior in ’08, scary stuff.
19. Texas Tech, 9-4 (NR) – The Raiders are one of those teams that always comes up with a big win or two, but never enough; Graham Harrell boosts the ranking.
20. Michigan, 9-4 (14) – This may even be to high, considering Manningham, Arrington and Mallet are as good as gone.
21. Oregon State, 9-4 (22) – The loss of Bernard will hurt, but there are very good players to fill in on what will be an underrated Beavers team.
22. UConn, 9-4 (NR) – Big East, Shmig East; this Huskies team will have some bite in ’08 with so many returning stars.
23. Pittsburgh, 5-7 (NR) – This will be the only team that had a losing record in ’07, that has a legitimate chance of entering ’08 ranked.
24. Mississippi State, 8-5 (NR) – Croom’s boys finally turned the corner, and should contend for the top 25 right way in ’08.
25. Illinois (16), 9-4 – While the BCS will be out of the question in ’08, the talent is there for another nice bowl game.

Dropped out from the final 2007 rankings:

Clemson, 9-4 (24) – Losses in the running game, and a penchant for being good but not great will hurt the Tigers again in ’08.
Virginia, 9-4 (21) – The Cavs will flirt with the top 25 all season in ’08.
Cincinnati, 10-3 (18) – Great story in ’07, but won’t have the same type of dream season in ’08.
Hawai’i (15), 12-1 – Watch for the Warriors to fall of the planet after the loss of Brennan and Jones.

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ZN Top 25: Final

*God, I really hate the BCS.

1. LSU (9), 12-2 – This was the only team allowed to prove itself.
2. West Virgina, 11-2 (12) – Seniors Pat White and Steve Slaton could finally do it in 2008.
3. Kansas (3), 12-1 – Although the Jayhawks should have gotten a shot at the title, I don’t think they could have won it.
4. Georgia (4), 11-2 – Beating up on the weakling won’t prove anything.
5. Missouri (7), 12-2 – This is a much better team than its record indicates.
6. Ohio State (1), 11-2 – Boekman looked like the rookie starter he is.
7. USC, 11-2 (16) – We get it, you’re not that bad.
8. Texas, 10-3 (20) – “Sideline interference” ‘nuff said.
9. Boston College, 11-3 (11) – Longest bowl win streak remains intact, as ugly as this one was.
10. Virginia Tech (5), 11-3 – The initial shell shock effect put the Hokies in a hole that they couldn’t climb out of.
11. Tennessee, 10-4 (14) – The Vols thrive with veteran QBs; they lose a good one in Ainge.
12. BYU, 11-2 (15) – How many times does this team have to win 10 games for it to get BCS consideration?
13. Oklahoma (2), 11-3 – It doesn’t matter how much the offense can do, if the defense never gets off the bus.
14. Michigan, 9-4 (NR) – Personal feelings aside, it was a great showing by the Wolves.
15. Hawai’i (6), 12-1 – Maybe the mid-majors need to rethink their argument for entrance into the BCS.
16. Illinois (8), 9-4 – Talent can’t always make up for experience and composure under pressure.
17. Penn State, 9-4 (21) – Probably the best coaching job by Paterno in recent memory, adjusting to A&M.
18. Cincinnati, 10-3 (19) – Taking a chance on Brian Kelly is paying huge dividends for the program.
19. Auburn, 9-4 (NR) – The Tigers showed a bit of their future in the OT win.
20. Florida, 9-4 (10) – This was the most overrated “team” in the nation; you can’t win with one player.
21. Virginia, 9-4 (13) – A young team, the Cavs should be even better in 2008, even after the choke job in the bowl.
22. Oregon State, 9-4 (24) – The Beavers have emerged as consistent winners
23. Wisconsin, 9-4 (22) – The Badgers looked unprepared for the fierce Vol pass rush.
24. Clemson, 9-4 (17) – “Mediocre (mē'dē-ō'kər) - adj. Moderate to inferior in quality; ordinary; Clemson Tigers.”
25. Arizona State, 10-3 (18) – Way to show up on the big stage, Sun Devils; so much for proving you belonged in the BCS.

Dropped Out:
Boise State, 10-3 (23) – While still a great program, it may have peaked in 2006.
Connecticut, 9-4 (25) – 2007 will still go down as an impressive campaign for the Huskies.

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The BCS: A Playoff in Disguise

Georgia could have played for the BCS title.

USC could have played for the BCS title.

If Oklahoma wins just as big, throw them in, too.

LSU and Ohio State are playing for the BCS title.

You know what, all of those teams are—or have just finished—playing for the BCS title. No, I haven’t officially lost it, even after suffering through two of the worst New Years Day games ever. In fact, I’ve just had a moment of clarity unlike any other. The 2007-08 BCS games are a playoff, a weird, demented playoff—for the 2008-09 BCS title that is.

In college basketball, tournament seeding is everything. If a team is seeded No. 1 or No. 2, they have a decided advantage over the lower-seeded teams. And while basketball actually allows teams to play their way to the title, each team’s position going into the tournament has everything to do with their chances of getting to the title game.

Now, look at the BCS. Georgia just blew out an undefeated Hawai’i team, and USC obliterated Illinois. If you want to take it one step further, Missouri pantsed Arkansas. And if Oklahoma tears apart West Virginia, they’ll be in this same boat. Sure, none of those teams moved closer to playing for this season’s title, but they vastly improved their chances for making it into next season’s. More likely than not, Georgia will roll into the 2008 preseason rankings somewhere in the top-5, along with USC and the winner of the LSU/OSU game—or both if it’s a close came. Missouri will round it out somewhere in the preseason top-10, and if Oklahoma wins, count them into the top-10 also, if not No. 1 or No. 2. Had Georgia, USC or Missou played poorly or lost, they wouldn’t get the preseason accolades they’re in line for right now. If the BCS title game turns into it’s 2007 predecessor—for either team—the loser will have a long climb up the polls, come the 2008 season.

However, this sounds a lot like the old poll system. Scary stuff, considering the BCS taunts itself as the be-all-end-all answer to college football’s age old question of “who’s number one.” Back then, if a team won it’s bowl game, they would have to wait and hope the pollsters chose them as worthy enough for the title. The only difference between then and now is that the decision is postponed until August, and the title is actually the following season.

Preseason polls are too powerful, too influential in college football—a sport in which “each week is a playoff.” Those polls are the very life blood for most title runs. In 2004, Auburn was buried by the AP at No. 17. USC and Oklahoma both began the season ranked No. 1 and No. 2. In 2004, Auburn defeated No. 4 LSU, No. 8 Tennessee in Knoxville, No. 5 Georgia, No. 15 Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game, and then No. 10 Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma defeated No. 5 Texas in Dallas, No. 20 Oklahoma State away, No. 22 Texas A&M in College Station, and got blown away by USC. USC defeated No. 7 California, No. 19 Arizona State, and blew away Oklahoma. The only reason Auburn was kept from playing for the 2004-05 national title was their low preseason ranking. The Tigers’ schedule was tougher, their wins more impressive and their performance more consistent, week in and week out.

Fast forward to August 2007, when USC was ranked No. 1, LSU No. 2, Oklahoma No. 8, Ohio State No. 11, Georgia No. 13, and Missouri receiving 128 votes in the AP poll, placing them just below No. 25 Texas A&M. You already know where I’m going with this one. The two teams playing for the 2007-08 BCS national title also happened to be the second and fourth highest ranked of those the teams claiming they’re deserving of this season’s title. USC lost to Stanford, which validates their exclusion outright and at Oregon. Oklahoma lost at Colorado and at Texas Tech. Georgia lost to South Carolina and Tennessee. Missouri lost to Oklahoma, twice. All of those teams lost twice, and Ohio State lost once, to Illinois. So Ohio State is essentially omitted from this argument. But if you look at LSU, which lost to mediocre Kentucky and Arkansas teams, and barely got by Tennessee in the SEC title game, the major factor propelling that team to the title game was its lofty preseason ranking.

The voters wanted LSU in the title game. They hated Missouri at No. 1, and despised South Florida and Boston College at No. 2. Even California and Oregon were sketchy at No. 2, in the pollsters’ minds. What about Kansas at No. 3? Forget about it, they found a reason to throw them back down after their single loss of the season.

So the next time someone tells you “In college football, every week is a playoff,” you tell them “Yeah, for next season’s title.”

I want to see a playoff, and I want to see the polls count for nothing until the first week of October. However, I also want to see Notre Dame join a conference, and FBS (D-1A) drop about 50 teams to FCS (D1-AA). But unless the SEC realizes it’s not “faster,” Charlie Weis loses about 200 pounds, or Penn State is rightfully given the 1994 National Championship, nothing will change any time soon.

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Top backs

I’ve taken serious issue with many things on ESPN.com, SI.com, CBSSportsLine.com and many others. But this one has got me going. Not that he’s the utmost authority on college football, but SI.com’s Cory McCartney felt he’d take another shot at ranking the top-10 running duos in 2007 college football. When you read his list, keep this in mind:

“Before we begin, let's remember the cardinal rules: this is about running backs only -- no running quarterbacks, fullbacks or all-purpose wide receivers that take the occasional handoff -- and it has to be a legit tandem, not just one guy with monster numbers.” – McCartney.

You’ll see he frequently breaks his own rules by selecting the players he did. Here’s his list, along with my own comments on each entry. I compiled the stats. I took only the names he provided, and they are his exact selections, nothing else. Enjoy.

Arkansas – Darren McFadden (305/1727/15), Felix Jones (122/1114/11) - I really can’t argue with the Razorbacks as No. 1. And if you want to take it a step further, Arkansas fullback Peyton Hillis (57/327/2) was one of the best blockers in college football, and had that highlight run against No. 1 LSU.
Georgia – Knowshon Moreno (239/1273/12), Thomas Brown (129/706/9) – I don’t really know about this one. Once Brown went down, this was only a one-horse show. But for a while, it was a lethal combo.
Kansas – Brandon McAnderson (175/1050/16), Jake Sharp (138/788/7) – This was more true to the traditional running back double-punch. Both had great YPC (6.0 and 5.7 respectively) and rarely lost yards. Neither was a true starter, or a true backup.
Michigan St. – Jehuu Caulcrick (207/813/21), Javon Ringer (224/1346/6) – Trust me, I know how dangerous these guys can be. Possibly one of the most productive touchdown machines in the nation, the Spartans’ backs plowed over and through the opposition all season.
Oklahoma – DeMarco Murray (127/764/13), Allen Patrick (159/927/8), Chris Brown (142/561/8) – Imagine if Murray didn’t get knocked out for the year? He would’ve been on pace for a Heisman invite the way Adrian Peterson was his freshman year. But all Patrick did was step in and nearly bread a grand. They could be No. 1 running back stable with little argument.
LSU – Jacob Hester (204/1019/11), Keiland Williams (68/459/6) – This is purely political. LSU is hardly an offensive juggernaut and this running back corps is not even close to the top-10. They’re only up here due to the media’s love affair with the Tigers.
USC – Chauncey Washington (183/894/9), Stafon Johnson (89/569/5), Joe McKnight (84/415/2) – I don’t know if this is just a bunch of good running backs, or an offense without a go-to guy. I think it’s the latter, actually. Out of three blue-chippers, USC can’t find one that can carry the load.
West Virginia – Pat White (177/1185/14), Steve Slaton (210/1053/17), Noel Devine (60/519/4) – This is probably the most comprehensive backfield in football, in terms of running the ball. The Mountaineers have a quarterback that can scoot, a feature back and a slasher. When healthy, no team in 2007 disrupted the production.
Clemson – James Davis (191/992/9), CJ Spiller (137/656/2) – Talk about a major underachievement for 2007; coming into the season these two were supposed to race each other to the Heisman ceremony, but neither could get it going. This should have been the ACC version of Arkansas, but wasn’t by a long shot.
UConn – Donald Brown (157/749/8), Andre Dixon (160/809/3) – If you like equality, look no further than the Huskies’ backfield. I think this is more of a “Hey! Here we are!” kind of thing this season, rather than how truly good they were.

Auburn – Brad Lester (111/473/3), Ben Tate (188/856/7) – What, because they’re in the SEC, they’re automatically moved up a few notches? I don’t think so.
Fresno St. – Ryan Mathews (145/866/14), Lonyae Miller (125/571/7) – I really don’t what the hubbub is about here. The only good part is that they combined for 21 touchdowns.
Maryland – Lance Ball (172/763/12), Keon Lattimore (206/789/13) – This was a nice running tandem out of College Park, but nothing to lose sleep over. Yeah, deserves to be in the top-20.
Navy – Reggie Campbell (64/464/5), Eric Kettani (140/755/9) – Doesn’t make sense when there are SEVEN rushers with more than 400 yards for 2007.
Southern Miss – Damion Fletcher (266/1431/15), Tory Harrison (93/386/5) – Fletcher could play with any team, even in the SEC. However, when the next rusher has less than 400, there’s no “duo” aspect.
Texas A&M – Mike Goodson (139/646/2), Jorvorskie Lane (159/746/16) – Throw in quarterback Stephen McGee and you’ve got yourself a power-version of West Virginia’s tri-fecta.
Western Michigan – Mark Bonds (157/690/8), Brandon West (183/848/4) – All things considered—they play in the MAC—this is a pretty good set of backs to work with in any mid-major league.

Now, it’s my turn to vent. So, he’s telling me that certain players from a team in central Pennsylvania wouldn’t qualify above any on this list? Or, should I ask, why isn’t Penn State’s duo of Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster on this list?

Here would be my entry:
Penn State – Rodney Kinlaw (222/1186/10), Evan Rosyter (73/448/4) – Not only were both backups to start 2007, Royster’s best games came against some of the better teams. Experienced veteran met raw talent and got along quite nicely for the Lions.

Now compare those numbers to the rest of McCartney’s list. See anything wrong? So do I.

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