School: University at Buffalo (UB), Bulls
Conference: Mid-American
Head Coach: Turner Gill, 2nd Year, 3-11
Last Game: Def. Temple, 42-7
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 7-51; 0-0 in bowls; 2-18 non-conference
Key Players, Defense: LB Larry Hutchinson, DE Trevor Scott, WR Simon Manka (not typo)
Key Players, Offense: RB Mario Henry, QB Drew Willy, K A.J. Principe
What to look for: D – The UB defense couldn’t expect much against an elite team like Rutgers in week one (yes, I believe RU is now an elite team), but the unit made up for the loss with a dominating performance against Temple. LB Hutchinson led the defense with eight total tackles, four TFLs (-25), two FF, a FR and three sacks (-24). Of course, UB needs that kind of production from him again to look respectable against PSU’s offense. DE Scott was also a menace to UT’s backfield, racking up six total tackles and two sacks (-22).
O – QB Willy missed only two passes (22 att.) last week, tossing two TDs and no INTs. UB has to get the short passing game going early, but can’t be afraid to chuck it long every so often. Otherwise, they’ll have no chance of gaining yards on the ground. OK, so they have no chance on the ground anyway, so just let it fly. If the offense can get any sort of protection up front, Willy can make some plays. If not, UB must hope RB Henry is a good pass protector.
ST – I listed WR Manka as a key defensive player, but he’s really a key special teamer because he blocked a punt last week, and could make the difference between a blowout and a scare for PSU. K Principe may get the only points of the day. He’s perfect on all kicks this year. If UB doesn’t improve its kick coverage, they’re in trouble against PSU’s excellent return games.
C – HC Turner Gill will get the program going, but not this week. There’s no Mike Rozier or, well, Turner Gill on this offense. He’ll have to be a magician to get offensive production, and should spread things out as much as possible. Unlike ND last week, UB has nothing to lose or gain. Gill will take some chances.
Fun Stat: In 1900 – the last time UB and PSU met – UB shutout PSU 10-0.
School: The Pennsylvania State University (PSU), Nittany Lions
Conference: Big Ten
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd Year, 365-121-3
Last Game: Defeated Notre Dame, 31-10
Record Last Five Years (sans 2007): 36-25; 1-1 in bowls; 7-4 non-conference
Key Players, Defense: LB Dan Connor, CB Lydell Sargeant, all DTs
Key Players, Offense: QB Anthony Morelli, WR Deon Butler, RB Austin Scott
What to look for: D – National player of the week isn’t a bad honor. LB Connor has been all over the field, but may not get the numbers this week, as HC Paterno wants to rest his starters as much as possible. I listed SC Sargeant as a key defensive player mainly due to the upcoming game at Michigan. Sargeant needs a strong performance against UB in order to fully prepare for next week. Also, as much as the defensive line has harassed opposing offensive lines, it hasn’t really been tested. UB is the first team PSU is facing that has a 100-yard rusher this season, and he’s no Mike Hart. DTs Ogbu, Odrick and Taylor must get into the backfield to break up run plays so the LBs don’t have to.
O – It was a so-so outing for QB Morelli against ND, but that can’t happen against UB. Last season, Morelli had a poor day against Youngstown St., looking very disinterested. That shouldn’t be the case with this game. He has to play sharp, and any less than 73 percent completions must be viewed as disappointing. PSU’s leading receiver in 2005-06, Butler has been relatively quiet in 2007. This will be his chance to get back in the groove, as Morelli should take more shots deep if UB comes out with any type of man coverage on the outside. RB Scott may carry the ball only 10-15 times, but it’s very important he walks away with an average of more than 8 ypc. Again, this week will be use to build depth behind the starters.
ST – Wow! When was the last time PSU’s special teams were actually “special” like they were against ND? Paterno said there have been no changes to who coaches the ST, but I think he made some wholesale changes to how much time is spent on the return and kicking games. WR Williams juked, spun and flew past the likes of ND’s Zbikowski to score the 78-yard PR TD, and could get another this week. K Kevin Kelly looked healthy and much stronger that last year, and should return to his 2005 form. He’s had 11 touchbacks on 16 kickoffs. P Jeremy Boone (more like Jeremy “Boom!”) has been outstanding.
C – Don’t get too vanilla this week. But don’t show all the cards before Michigan. If ICOD (“In charge of defense, PSU calls it) Bradley uses the same amount of blitzes from last week, this game will be over in the second quarter. Use the backups as much as possible. PSU should try to run up the score and put the game away before halftime. Michigan will be tired after playing their tails off against ND, PSU shouldn’t be.
Fun Stat: Beginning with the 12-0 win over Purdue last year, the PSU defense has allowed 6.5 ppg, and 225.9 ypg.
GAME PREDICTION:
PSU 44, UB 3
VEGAS:
PSU (-34.5) UB
ACTUAL SCORE:
PSU 45, UB 24
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