Preview: No. 12 Penn State vs. No. 21 Illinois

Kickoff: Sat., Sept. 27. 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN GamePlan

Weather Forecast: High 50s, Strong Chance for Rain.

Host: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 4-0 (0-0, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Temple, 45-3
Injuries: Jerome Hayes (ACL - out season), LB Sean Lee (ACL - out season), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out season), DL Mike Lucian (ankle - probable), Doug Klopacz (ankle - probable), TE Mickey Shuler (ankle - probable)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QBs Daryll Clark; (defense) Saf. Anthony Scirrotto, DE Aaron Maybin
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 376-125-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 274.2 rush/264.2 pass/52.8 points per game
Defense - 52.2 rush/170 pass/10 points per game
TO Margin - (+3)

Why PSU will win -- The offense: Yes, as any of you could have predicted, I think the Penn State offensive juggernaut will roll on this week. There are plenty of good offenses in the Big Ten, five of which are averaging more than 30 points per game. Then there’s PSU’s unit, which is cranking out 15 more points per game than the next best offense, Illinois’. Daryll Clark is the best quarterback, and he’ll be supported by the best rushing attack in the conference. Penn State leads the Big Ten in all four major categories. (Total off., Pass, Rush, PPG) The run defense: Illinois may average 224 yards per game on the ground, but most of that came from a 399-yard day vs. I-AA Eastern Illinois. Penn State’s front four has played far beyond anyone’s expectations, and will put tons of pressure on Juice Williams. More importantly, however, is that Penn State has the No. 1 rush defense in the Big Ten, mostly due to the line play. Big Ten sack leader Aaron Maybin, captain Josh Gaines, along with tackles Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu will clamp down on the Illini run game.

Visitor: Illinois Fighting Illini
Record: 2-1 (0-0 Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs. Louisiana Lafayette 20-17
Injuries: OL Ryan Palmer (foot - out), DB Miami Thomas (ACL - out season), S Donsay Hardeman (knee - probable), WR Jeff Cumberland (foot - probable)
Key Players: (offense) QB Juice Williams, RB Daniel Dufrene; (defense) LB Brit Miller, LB Martez Wilson
Head Coach: Ron Zook, 4th season at Illinois, 15-24; 7th year overall, 38-38
Season Statistics:
Offense - 224.7 rush/244 pass/36.3 points per game
Defense - 163 rush/208.3 pass/30 points per game
TO Margin - (+1)

Why Illinois will win -- Juice Williams: If this guy has a good game, the Illinois offense will have a great game. He’s probably the most improved passer in the Big Ten since his freshman season (<40% comp). Williams can’t afford to turn the ball over in a hostile Beaver Stadium, and I think he can do it. We all saw what he did to Ohio State in Columbus last year. Just like then, converting third downs will be the absolute key to this game for the Illini. Turnovers: Penn State hasn’t been taking good care of the ball lately (4 lost fum.), and Illinois must capitalize on that. What should really get the Illini anxious is that most of those fumbles came near the goal line, which would set them up nicely for quick, cheap point. Illinois has to score, and score a lot, and turnovers are a great way to do it.

What will happen: Illinois has played in very intimidating places (Columbus vs. No. 1 Ohio State, maybe?), but they have never played in front of a Penn State White Out, at night. Just ask those Buckeyes how things went in 2005. I think Illinois will be able to move the ball, but fail to score enough touchdowns. Penn State, on the other hand, should be able to march up and down the field, almost at will against a porous Illini defense--dead last in the Big Ten in PPG. I said earlier that Juice Williams will have to play a near-perfect game to win this one... he won’t. Penn State isn’t taking Illinois for granted the way Ohio State did in 2007, and everyone knows these are two very good teams. Evan Royster will have the national-spotlight game to thrust himself into dark horse Heisman contention. But I think the Penn State offense will prove to college football that they’re for real.

Prediction: No. 12 Penn State, 44 - No. 21 Illinois, 23