Preview: The Rose Bowl, No. 8 Penn State at No. 5 Southern California

Kickoff: Thurs., Jan. 1. 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Weather Forecast: Sunny, Warm, Clear.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 11-1 (7-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Michigan St, 49-18
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley; (defense) DE Aaron Maybin, LB Navorro Bowman, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 383-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 211.6 rush/240.6 pass/40.2 points per game
Defense - 95.9 rush/168 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- The hype machine is in full force, and that's a good thing for Penn State. It is usually when the media tells these Nittany Lions that they have no chance to win, that they go right out there and prove everyone wrong. Ohio State 2005? No chance. Tennessee 2006? No chance. Ohio State 2008? No chance. All... wrong! But when it comes to on-the-field factors, Penn State hasn't had a passing attack like this since Kerry Collins was torching opponents with Bobby Engram and Kyle Brady. Only, this time, Daryll Clark has the three best (statistically, at least) wide receivers in Penn State history, and an offensive line just as good as the 1994 edition. Top all of that with Clark's mobility, and the Lions have all the tool necessary to hang around with, and even beat the best defense in college football. I've heard all week (and all month, too) that Clark is a liability because he hasn't led a fourth-quarter comeback drive. But I haven't exactly seen USC do that either, as most of their games are well in hand by the final stanza. Can Mark Sanchez lead a fourth-quarter comeback drive? He had a chance, at Oregon State, but blew it, just like Clark at Iowa. That's not to say Penn State is all passing, as Evan Royster has been hands-down the most underrated running back this season. No defense will tackle him on the first hit, and once he's in the open field, it's 30 yards and a cloud of dust.

Penn State has also been every bit as good on defense as the Trojans have this season. What most analysts aren't looking at, is the level of competition USC has faced. Any team with a defense like USC's or PSU's could shut out Washington and Washington State, two of the worst teams in the FBS. It's not like the Penn State defense is mediocre this season. The analysts would lead you to believe that the Nittany Lions are less than impressive on that side of the ball, when in fact the PSU defense is No. 5 in total defense, and No. 3 in points allowed. USC has also thrown 12 interceptions this year, 8 more than Penn State, and has lost the same number (9) of fumbles as the Lions. So don't let the "USC is great at forcing turnovers" mantra cloud the view of this USC team. They had no choice but to force turnovers, to make up for the many offensive miscues that no one likes to point out.

Host: Southern California Trojans
Record: 11-1 (8-1 Pac 10)
Last Game: Won vs UCLA, 28-7
Injuries: RB Stafon Johnson (knee - probable), WR Damian Williams (shoulder - doubtful), S Kevin Ellison (knee - doubtful), RB Allen Bradford (hip - out), TE Thomas Herring (ankle - out), FB Stanley Havili (academics - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Mark Sanchez, RB CJ Gable, RT Butch Lewis; (defense) LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, S Taylor Mays
Head Coach: Pete Carroll, 8th season at USC, 87-15 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 206 rush/247.1 pass/37.5 points per game
Defense - 83.2 rush/122.8 pass/7.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why USC will win -- Can any other team in America say they have the talent on defense USC will bring to bear against Penn State? But this defense isn't what you would expect. USC gives up a paltry 122 passing yards per game, but a surprising 83 yards rushing per game. That's because USC using their pass defense to stop the run. They know with guys like Rey Maualuga and Filli Moala, the opponents' run game won't pose so much of a threat, so USC can concentrate on attacking the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Throwing off routes has been a strong suit for USC, and forcing the other quarterback to throw early is a very bad idea when its against this defense. After all, if you don't get that ball out of there quick enough, you'll be on your bottom even quicker. USC loves to play a Tampa 2 and Man-Under defense, very conservative. Pete Carroll has that luxury because of the speed and skill his defenders have. That allows fewer risks that need to be taken on defense, like blitzing. Sure, USC will send the heat once in a while, but not as often as other teams do. USC will want to get Penn State into a dink-and-dunk kind of offensive game plan, and limit the big plays.

On offense, the days of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett are gone, but the production is still outstanding. USC does not have a 1,000-yard back this season, but does have three players over 600 yards a piece–Joe McKnight (646), Stafon Johnson (642) and CJ Gable (602). Johnson has been hampered by a nagging injury, but should be able to play. That means USC will field (even if not all at the same time) 1,800 yards worth of rushing against Penn State. Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do a whole lot at quarterback, but he is more than capable to keep the offense humming. He was left without the 2007 starter Vidal Hazelton all this season (he transfered last month), but Patrick Turner and Ronald Johnson have filled in nicely. Leading the pack is Damien Williams, who has pulled in more than 700 receiving yards this year. But it will all come down to the USC offensive line, particularly the starting tackles, Butch Lewis and Charles Brown. They will be in charge of stopping the potent PSU pass rush, and Aaron Maybin. But it won't only be about keeping Sanchez upright. USC can push PSU back on its heels by using misdirection and screens to neutralize the defense, and with the talented USC backfield, the results could be huge gains.

What will happen -- Pete Carroll has created a great dynasty in Los Angeles, no doubt. But is he really deserving of such confidence over JOSEPH VINCENT PATERNO? USC has been great in bowls under Carroll, but so has Penn State under Paterno. If you compare the first eight seasons of each coach, Paterno has the better resume with two more undefeated seasons, and some of the best defenses of that time. The media loves to tell us "never underestimate Joe Paterno," but that's exactly what they're doing. The USC players looked bored and apathetic at the Rose Bowl media day earlier this week. I'm going out on a limb to say that I think this will negatively affect this team. USC usually blows the game when they're told they'll definitely win. That's what is happening.

***Disclaimer: By no means should the following prediction be taken as a promise. I have no clue what exactly will happen. I can only guess, and hope for the best. But if I could actually choose how this game should go, the following is what I would go with.***

Penn State will come out, lose the toss, and USC will want to put its vaunted defense on the field first. The Lions will be lucky to score on their first drive, but look for a nice first return from Chaz Powell (USC will kick away from Derrick Williams), giving Clark and the offense good field position. Penn State will go up by a field goal. The offenses on both sides will trade long, pounding drives, but Penn State will trail 13-10 at halftime.

In the second half, Tom Bradley will make some adjustments, while USC will keep playing like the national champion-calibur team it is. After two field goals, the Lions will be no further along than at the half, but a huge Derrick Williams return will spark the offense to some quick-hitting points, maybe even a touchdown. Penn State will shock USC by scoring the 10 points in a matter of minutes, forcing USC to make a risky throw or play call. Leading 20-16, Mark Rubin will make the play of the game, stepping in front of a Sanchez pass. Taking it all the way down to the one, Clark will go in on a QB-sneak. USC doesn't hesitate, marching right back down the field to score a touchdown, but misses the two-point conversion.

With Penn State leading 27-22, the Lions will try to run out the clock, but too much time is left. USC will have one last chance to score, but can't move down the field fast enough. With 0:02 left on the clock, Sanchez heaves a pass to the end zone, but Tony Davis is there to knock it down.

Stat Notes: USC will end up sacking Clark four times, but can't finish him off on a few key plays. Penn State will pick off Sanchez twice, once on a tipped pass at the line. USC will rush for at least 140 yards, but pass for only 170. Penn State will pass for 190, but only rush for 110. This game will come down to special teams, with USC ending up with horrible return averages, while Penn State will make several big plays for good field position.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 27 - No. 5 USC 22