Preview: The Rose Bowl, No. 8 Penn State at No. 5 Southern California

Kickoff: Thurs., Jan. 1. 4:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Weather Forecast: Sunny, Warm, Clear.

Visitor: Penn State Nittany Lions
Record: 11-1 (7-1, Big Ten)
Last Game: Won vs Michigan St, 49-18
Injuries: RB Brent Carter (leg - out), DE Devon Still (ankle - out), S Nick Sukay (foot - out), LB Sean Lee (knee - out), C Doug Klopacz (knee - out), DE Jerome Hayes (knee - out)
Key Players: (offense) RB Evan Royster, QB Daryll Clark, C AQ Shipley; (defense) DE Aaron Maybin, LB Navorro Bowman, S Anthony Scirrotto
Head Coach: Joe Paterno, 43rd season, 383-126-3
Season Statistics:
Offense - 211.6 rush/240.6 pass/40.2 points per game
Defense - 95.9 rush/168 pass/12.4 points per game
TO Margin - (+9)

Why PSU will win -- The hype machine is in full force, and that's a good thing for Penn State. It is usually when the media tells these Nittany Lions that they have no chance to win, that they go right out there and prove everyone wrong. Ohio State 2005? No chance. Tennessee 2006? No chance. Ohio State 2008? No chance. All... wrong! But when it comes to on-the-field factors, Penn State hasn't had a passing attack like this since Kerry Collins was torching opponents with Bobby Engram and Kyle Brady. Only, this time, Daryll Clark has the three best (statistically, at least) wide receivers in Penn State history, and an offensive line just as good as the 1994 edition. Top all of that with Clark's mobility, and the Lions have all the tool necessary to hang around with, and even beat the best defense in college football. I've heard all week (and all month, too) that Clark is a liability because he hasn't led a fourth-quarter comeback drive. But I haven't exactly seen USC do that either, as most of their games are well in hand by the final stanza. Can Mark Sanchez lead a fourth-quarter comeback drive? He had a chance, at Oregon State, but blew it, just like Clark at Iowa. That's not to say Penn State is all passing, as Evan Royster has been hands-down the most underrated running back this season. No defense will tackle him on the first hit, and once he's in the open field, it's 30 yards and a cloud of dust.

Penn State has also been every bit as good on defense as the Trojans have this season. What most analysts aren't looking at, is the level of competition USC has faced. Any team with a defense like USC's or PSU's could shut out Washington and Washington State, two of the worst teams in the FBS. It's not like the Penn State defense is mediocre this season. The analysts would lead you to believe that the Nittany Lions are less than impressive on that side of the ball, when in fact the PSU defense is No. 5 in total defense, and No. 3 in points allowed. USC has also thrown 12 interceptions this year, 8 more than Penn State, and has lost the same number (9) of fumbles as the Lions. So don't let the "USC is great at forcing turnovers" mantra cloud the view of this USC team. They had no choice but to force turnovers, to make up for the many offensive miscues that no one likes to point out.

Host: Southern California Trojans
Record: 11-1 (8-1 Pac 10)
Last Game: Won vs UCLA, 28-7
Injuries: RB Stafon Johnson (knee - probable), WR Damian Williams (shoulder - doubtful), S Kevin Ellison (knee - doubtful), RB Allen Bradford (hip - out), TE Thomas Herring (ankle - out), FB Stanley Havili (academics - out)
Key Players: (offense) QB Mark Sanchez, RB CJ Gable, RT Butch Lewis; (defense) LB Rey Maualuga, DT Fili Moala, S Taylor Mays
Head Coach: Pete Carroll, 8th season at USC, 87-15 overall
Season Statistics:
Offense - 206 rush/247.1 pass/37.5 points per game
Defense - 83.2 rush/122.8 pass/7.8 points per game
TO Margin - (+5)

Why USC will win -- Can any other team in America say they have the talent on defense USC will bring to bear against Penn State? But this defense isn't what you would expect. USC gives up a paltry 122 passing yards per game, but a surprising 83 yards rushing per game. That's because USC using their pass defense to stop the run. They know with guys like Rey Maualuga and Filli Moala, the opponents' run game won't pose so much of a threat, so USC can concentrate on attacking the quarterbacks and wide receivers. Throwing off routes has been a strong suit for USC, and forcing the other quarterback to throw early is a very bad idea when its against this defense. After all, if you don't get that ball out of there quick enough, you'll be on your bottom even quicker. USC loves to play a Tampa 2 and Man-Under defense, very conservative. Pete Carroll has that luxury because of the speed and skill his defenders have. That allows fewer risks that need to be taken on defense, like blitzing. Sure, USC will send the heat once in a while, but not as often as other teams do. USC will want to get Penn State into a dink-and-dunk kind of offensive game plan, and limit the big plays.

On offense, the days of Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart and Dwayne Jarrett are gone, but the production is still outstanding. USC does not have a 1,000-yard back this season, but does have three players over 600 yards a piece–Joe McKnight (646), Stafon Johnson (642) and CJ Gable (602). Johnson has been hampered by a nagging injury, but should be able to play. That means USC will field (even if not all at the same time) 1,800 yards worth of rushing against Penn State. Mark Sanchez hasn't been asked to do a whole lot at quarterback, but he is more than capable to keep the offense humming. He was left without the 2007 starter Vidal Hazelton all this season (he transfered last month), but Patrick Turner and Ronald Johnson have filled in nicely. Leading the pack is Damien Williams, who has pulled in more than 700 receiving yards this year. But it will all come down to the USC offensive line, particularly the starting tackles, Butch Lewis and Charles Brown. They will be in charge of stopping the potent PSU pass rush, and Aaron Maybin. But it won't only be about keeping Sanchez upright. USC can push PSU back on its heels by using misdirection and screens to neutralize the defense, and with the talented USC backfield, the results could be huge gains.

What will happen -- Pete Carroll has created a great dynasty in Los Angeles, no doubt. But is he really deserving of such confidence over JOSEPH VINCENT PATERNO? USC has been great in bowls under Carroll, but so has Penn State under Paterno. If you compare the first eight seasons of each coach, Paterno has the better resume with two more undefeated seasons, and some of the best defenses of that time. The media loves to tell us "never underestimate Joe Paterno," but that's exactly what they're doing. The USC players looked bored and apathetic at the Rose Bowl media day earlier this week. I'm going out on a limb to say that I think this will negatively affect this team. USC usually blows the game when they're told they'll definitely win. That's what is happening.

***Disclaimer: By no means should the following prediction be taken as a promise. I have no clue what exactly will happen. I can only guess, and hope for the best. But if I could actually choose how this game should go, the following is what I would go with.***

Penn State will come out, lose the toss, and USC will want to put its vaunted defense on the field first. The Lions will be lucky to score on their first drive, but look for a nice first return from Chaz Powell (USC will kick away from Derrick Williams), giving Clark and the offense good field position. Penn State will go up by a field goal. The offenses on both sides will trade long, pounding drives, but Penn State will trail 13-10 at halftime.

In the second half, Tom Bradley will make some adjustments, while USC will keep playing like the national champion-calibur team it is. After two field goals, the Lions will be no further along than at the half, but a huge Derrick Williams return will spark the offense to some quick-hitting points, maybe even a touchdown. Penn State will shock USC by scoring the 10 points in a matter of minutes, forcing USC to make a risky throw or play call. Leading 20-16, Mark Rubin will make the play of the game, stepping in front of a Sanchez pass. Taking it all the way down to the one, Clark will go in on a QB-sneak. USC doesn't hesitate, marching right back down the field to score a touchdown, but misses the two-point conversion.

With Penn State leading 27-22, the Lions will try to run out the clock, but too much time is left. USC will have one last chance to score, but can't move down the field fast enough. With 0:02 left on the clock, Sanchez heaves a pass to the end zone, but Tony Davis is there to knock it down.

Stat Notes: USC will end up sacking Clark four times, but can't finish him off on a few key plays. Penn State will pick off Sanchez twice, once on a tipped pass at the line. USC will rush for at least 140 yards, but pass for only 170. Penn State will pass for 190, but only rush for 110. This game will come down to special teams, with USC ending up with horrible return averages, while Penn State will make several big plays for good field position.

Prediction: No. 8 Penn State 27 - No. 5 USC 22

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USC players look like morons on TMZ

My wife loves TMZ. I love her for loving TMZ. That's because if it wasn't for her, I would have missed this gem tonight on the Hollywood tabloid show. Sorry I didn't have it posted sooner. I was covering a basketball game.

The USC players at the Lawry's Rib Bowl were asked about Vice-President Elect Joe Biden, Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich among other things. A bunch of them didn't know about Blagojevich. Understandable enough, since that's a little more political-junky stuff. But come on, Rey Maualuga, not even Joe freakin' Biden?

"Damn, that name sounds familiar, but, uh..." Rey so eloquently said. He had to be told who he is, only to reply, "I only know who Obama is."

Then fellow linebacker (and a kid who grew up around me in Bergen County, NJ), Brian Cushing was asked about the same vice-president elect. He didn't know either, so TMZ asked his teammate (I couldn't tell who it was) about Blagojavich. Then Cushing realized it was a bunch of political, current events questions.

"Oh, political shit?" Cushing called out from his long blonde locks. Nice. Way to represent your team and school. They must be very proud right now.

I will give one Trojan credit. Mark Sanchez did know who Joe Biden was, and even knew about Blagojavich. But even though he didn't have any opinions on them, he did the smart thing and just said "I'm just worried about the Rose Bowl right now."

In a town where you can't do anything without a camera crew in your face, you'd think the rest of the team would be as camera-savvy as Sanchez.

From TMZ.com:

"If you wanna get into the prestigious University of Southern California, you're going to have to compete for admission spots with some of the brightest people in the country -- and a bunch of dumbass football players.

The Men of Troy hit Lawry's for the annual pre-Rose Bowl prime rib dinner last night -- but when we asked about VP-elect Joe Biden, disgraced governor Rod Blagojevich and euthanasia, well ... the world-class athletes looked more like world-class tackling dummies."

TMZ still had to throw in this quip:

"Fun Fact: They're still going to beat the crap out of Penn State."

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Rose Bowl/USC update, Dec. 26

Ok, so I changed the name from "USC update" to "Rose Bowl update." I figured, since some of the things I'll put up aren't all about USC, "Rose Bowl" was more appropriate. On with today's dirt.

Just a quick rundown of issues we're looking at right now, regarding the Rose Bowl and USC Trojans:

• So, apparently, the 2008 Penn State Rose Bowl team is no different (or better?) than the 2007 Illinois Rose Bowl team. At least, according to Butkus Award winner Rey Maualuga.

"USC middle linebacker Rey Maualuga said Clark's mobility won't bother the Trojans, who are giving up only 7.8 points and 206 yards a game.

USC played in the Pac 10, away at Virginia and home against Ohio State. None of those teams had a quarterback (or team) like Penn State. Sure, you could compare Terrelle Pryor to Clark... in about two more years. But USC has not faced anything like the kind of complete-team performer that is Penn State this season. I know the article was about containing a running quarterback, but the story made it sound like that is all USC has to worry about. When, actually, Clark's running ability was far from a key component to the Penn State offense, as opposed to Michael Robinson in 2005.

"If we've got everything locked down in practice and everyone does their assignments, we should have no problem with the running quarterback," said Maualuga, who has a team-best 73 tackles. Maualuga said that based on what he had seen of Clark on film, he rated him ahead of Illinois quarterback Juice Williams. In the 2008 Rose Bowl, the Trojans controlled Williams and won, 49-17."

Boy, Rey should have been named Academic All-American for that one. He rates 2008 Clark ahead of 2007 Williams. Never would have figured that one out. It is just ridiculous to compare last season's Illinois team to this year's Penn State team. It's not just the records (Illinois went 9-3), but no one in the world expected the Illini to beat USC in the 2008 Rose Bowl. And as good as Williams might have been during the 2007 regular season, he still had enormous flaws that we all knew about. Clark, meanwhile, has been given a very bad wrap this year for one throw–the interception at Iowa. No, he hasn't led this team to a fourth-quarter comeback, but he only had one chance to do that. That's how good this Penn State team can be. Rey needs to realize that before the game starts.

• You all know my love affair for CFN, and Pete Fiutak isn't helping me get over it. In his "Fiu's DAILY Cavalcade of Whimsy," he touches on the Paterno situation.

"Let's get a couple of things straight. First of all, Penn State is 11-1, won the Big Ten title, and is playing USC in the Rose Bowl. Penn State is 11-1, won the Big Ten title, and is playing USC in the Rose Bowl. Any one of those three things would make for a successful season by anyone's standards, and the Nittany Lions came within a last second Iowa field goal from playing for the national title. This year, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech would be the only teams that wouldn't trade résumés with Penn State, but Paterno should be gone just because he's old?!"

I know, he's not a Penn State homer by any means. That's why I like CFN. They are fair and balanced, will call out your team when they suck, and praise them when they're good. I'm not sure though, that I've been hearing so much negativity against the Paterno contract extension. I know it's out there, but there's just as much support for the move as there is against it. Fiu said...

"I got into a few arguments last week with people saying it's sort of sad that Paterno is sticking around, especially considering his current health status with a hip replacement. Who cares? If he wants to coach from the press box, or at least lord over his assistants, then let him. If he's in a vegetative state 15 years from no and all he can do is blink in the signals, you let him still coach his program."

...and imagine if Penn State beats USC?

• Quick outs: USC tailback Stafon Johnson did not practice Monday because of a kneecap injury, but the junior said he would play in the Rose Bowl against Penn State on Jan 1... Receiver Damian Williams (shoulder) was held out of practice to prevent him from negating progress made this week, Carroll said... Fullback Stanley Havili (ankle) remained sidelined. His status for the Rose Bowl is uncertain.

More USC/Rose Bowl updates:
Dec. 22

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